Pakistan has experienced rapid long-term population growth because death rates fell while birth rates remained relatively high. Understanding this process requires interpreting rates, not simply saying that there are many births. Growth affects demand for land, food, water, housing, education, health care and employment.

The population balance

Population change can be represented as births minus deaths plus immigration minus emigration. Births and deaths are normally the largest components. When birth rate exceeds death rate, the population grows through natural increase. Even if the growth rate falls, the number added each year may remain large because the starting population is much bigger.

This is called population momentum. A youthful population contains many people entering reproductive ages, so total births can stay high even when average family size begins to decline.

Why death rates fell

Death rates can fall because of vaccination, safer water, sanitation, antibiotics, improved maternal care, better nutrition, emergency treatment and wider public-health knowledge. Infant mortality may decline when births are attended safely and children receive immunisation and oral rehydration treatment.

These improvements do not occur evenly. Rural remoteness, poverty, conflict, gender barriers and poor urban services can maintain higher mortality in particular groups.

Why birth rates may remain high

Large families may provide labour, support parents in old age and compensate for child mortality. Early marriage, limited female education, low access to family planning and cultural preferences can raise fertility. In farming communities, children may be seen as economic contributors even though the costs of education and health care are increasing.

Urban living, female employment, later marriage, higher education and reliable pensions often reduce desired family size over time.

Consequences of growth

A growing population can enlarge the labour force and domestic market. If people are healthy, educated and productively employed, this can produce a demographic dividend. If job creation, schooling and infrastructure lag behind, unemployment, congestion, informal housing and pressure on water and land increase.

Evaluation should therefore focus on the relationship between population growth and the capacity of the economy and government to provide opportunities and services.